What state is British politics in, good or bad, after the last 40 years?

What does the future hold?

Years ago, the demographics of the voters was clear, with traditional classes typically mirroring the political allegiances. The middle classes falling across the main parties and where the liberals would pick up a share of the votes.  The mirroring of classes therefore tended to be left wing, right wing or centre ground. Simple!

Somewhere in the late 90’s and early noughties things changed with a shift from the right to the centre and most significant was the shift from the left to centre ground.  The predictability then of polls becomes a lot less clear as the variations of swing within an election campaign is a lot less to determine the result.

In the 1970’s and early 1980’s the mantra was that what worked well was the 2 term Conservative to the 1 term Labour where the economy was the focus for eight years followed by 4 years of focus on the people.  Building the economy to a state that could then fund spending on conditions, the poor and the public services. Political views across terms remained the same and the people voted accordingly.

In the late 80’s and early 90’s the paradigm shift happened where Labour struggled to offer a cohesive opposition as people were benefiting from the boom in the economy and a change in the GDP where the country moved away from traditional and historic manufacturing to service based industries.

The solution in the late 90’s was to move to “New Labour” which fundamentally was a shift to the centre ground a decade too late but the result was an effective opposition that was electable as the commercial and economic vision was what would have been expected of a historic Conservative government.

The economic boom and bust was a worldwide phenomenon and the political landscape changed more based on the ability to react than anything to do with policy or manifesto.  The shift was somehow inevitable and the change would have happened whoever was in power because it was not just big companies that got their fingers burned but the ripple went all the way down to the man in the street.

So, what now?  The 2017 General Election is being run on the ability to be in a strong negotiating position with the EU.  People want to be better off and have the ability to live a life with options and disposable income to make life choices.  So, what do the manifestos say for the ground each party is trying to gain?

Firstly, the Labour party is trying to step back to the left with a vision fundamentally based on improving public services through nationalising railways, water, utilities, etc.

Secondly the Conservatives have made a notional step across the central ground to the left with some policies intended to target the labour voters who are concerned about the direction of labour occupying their traditional left position.

Thirdly the Liberal Democrats are caught in the middle as usual but with a mixed bag of policies that are reactionary to the other two parties.  They are also under threat from the small “other” parties like the SNP, UKIP, Greens and Plaid Cymru who have picked up voters with demographic shifts of the two main parties.

Looking to the future what can we foresee?

The Liberal Democrats need to communicate their future vision if they are not going to be surpassed by the “others” and we will then have two party politics and protest vote parties.

The political map needs to be redrawn with the occupying of the centre ground by the main parties.  To report on demographics becomes blurred and very difficult to predict in a society that votes on the personalities often.

The “others” are not going away but will not pose effective opposition in coalition.  Politics needs both effective leaders and opposition, and politicians need to remember they are voted in and voted out and it is not ALL about them!

In conclusion, the 1970’s and 80’s where the analogy of 2 terms Conservative to the 1 of Labour is probably resigned to history but the politics should not be forgotten or ignored and the balance of economy versus public services should be forefront of every parties manifesto as they all occupy that centre ground which wins voters.

So is it Good or Bad?

Neither it is evolving and only time will tell but politicians will need to change on the new playing field.